THE BIG IDEA: Bernie Sanders will not be the Democratic nominee, but he is tapping into an emerging liberal tea party movement.
Democrats are coming to terms with Hillary Clinton. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal polling, which posted overnight, has the former secretary of State pulling 75 percent nationally, with Sanders in second place at 15 percent. Just 8 percent of Democrats said they could not eventually support her.
If Clinton is the nominee and loses the general election, there will be intense backlash from progressives who have felt for eight years that Barack Obama failed to live up to their hopes and would feel like Clinton lost because she was insufficiently liberal. The energy level on the left in 2017 could mirror what we saw on the right in 2009. Sanders, an independent from Vermont, is giving us an early taste of what this could look like.
Here are five takeaways from Bernie’s bounce:
–Sanders is winning over the Draft Warren crowd. Polling shows that the same folks who wanted the Massachusetts senator to run earlier this year are backing Bernie now. Sanders, 73, points out that he was taking on Wall Street, calling for higher taxes on the rich and backing defense cuts long before anyone knew who Warren was. “I’ve known Elizabeth Warren since before she was Elizabeth Warren,” he told PowerPost’s Kelsey Snell in an interview, posting this morning, about how he’s using his perch as the top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee to influence the debate over spending and taxes. “I knew her when she was merely a professor of law at Harvard and a very good writer … There’s very little she’s done that I don’t agree with.”
–Sanders was always better suited to rise in New Hampshire than anywhere else: A Suffolk University poll last week found Sanders at 31 percent there, 10 points behind Clinton. He won 39 percent of self-described liberals. Post pollster Scott Clement notes that, because he represents the neighboring state of Vermont, Sanders is much better known there than in the other early state of Iowa. He and Clinton are roughly on par at this point on favorability among Democrats in the Granite State (62/9 for him and 72/19 for her in the Suffolk poll). In Iowa, 40 percent of Democrats had no opinion of Sanders in the most recent Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll and less than half viewed him favorably.
–Sanders’ strength might wind up being worse for Rand Paul than Hillary Clinton: The Vermont socialist is exciting many of the college-aged, privacy-minded voters who the Kentucky libertarian has banked on galvanizing. In 2012, the Iowa caucuses took place during winter break. This time, they are on Feb. 1 when universities are in session. Paul bets that he can expand the GOP electorate by luring non-traditional voters. John Deeth, a progressive blogger from the college town of Iowa City, calls Paul “the biggest loser” of Sanders success. “They’re competing for some of the same voters,” he emails.
–Voters crave authenticity, and Sanders is tapping into that. He exhausts crowds with meandering speeches and by taking every question. On Twitter, @berniesanders does mini-tweet storms with no links (which makes it harder to harvest emails or raise money). He’ll post five or six tweets in a row that resemble a direct speech. Usually one or two of those tweets goes viral. It fits his style well, they’re in his voice and most importantly they don’t sound message-tested
–But it’s not clear that Sanders can turn big crowds into a meaningful organization. Five thousand came to see the senator in Denver over the weekend, but will they actually go to work on his behalf? Sanders’ campaign announced the hiring of five more staffers yesterday, including Robert Becker, who ran Iowa for Bill Richardson in 2008 and worked for Bill Bradley in 2000. Three of the five come from the “Run Warren Run” group that recently disbanded. Arnie Arnesen, a progressive New Hampshire radio host who is neutral, is unsure. “He comes from Vermont,” she told us. “He’s always had to manage 12 people, not 12 million … Does he have the capacity to pull together the people he can trust? Can he maintain his values and maintain his ‘difficultness’ and organize a national campaign? It’s hard to do for anyone, but it’s even harder for someone who has always been a maverick … But a strong, successful loss changes the country. He can change the conversation. He’s the only one who can lose and win.”
— Momentum continues building to get rid of the Confederate flag across the South: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s call for removing the Confederate flag from the grounds of her state capitol yesterday afternoon was endorsed by many of the state’s leading Republicans, the leading 2016 candidates and congressional leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Then late last night, the conservative speaker of the Mississippi state House declared that his state should consider changing its flag to remove the Confederate symbolism. “We must always remember our past, but that does not mean we must let it define us,” Philip Gunn said in a statement. “As a Christian, I believe our state’s flag has become a point of offense that needs to be removed. We need to begin having conversations about changing Mississippi’s flag.”
It is significant that much of the Republican rhetoric supporting the removal of the flag, including Gunn’s, is couched in Scripture. Mark Sanford, who knows something about grace, invoked 1 Corinthians 10:23 to endorse Nikki Haley’s move: “All things are lawful, but all are not profitable … all do not edify.” The former governor, now back in the House, noted that, “Rather than having on the State House grounds something that divides some of us, I think we would be wise to take the wisdom of the Apostle Paul there in Corinthians.”
This is a remarkable moment in the history of the South. Henry Barbour, the state’s Republican National Committeeman and the nephew of Haley Barbour, tweeted that he had supported a 2001 statewide referendum that chose to keep the flag by a two-to-one margin. “But I’m 4 change,” Barbour wrote. “I understand why many will want to keep it – respect that. Just disagree.”
— The Taliban continued to converge on Kunduz, Afghanistan, “triggering fears that they could capture their first Afghan city since U.S.-backed forces toppled the hard-line Islamist regime in late 2001.” The Post’s Sudarsan Raghavan reports from Kunduz that, “The government in Kabul has dispatched reinforcements, including Afghan special forces and their U.S. advisers and trainers, to try to repel the insurgents and rescue about 75 soldiers and police officers trapped inside their district base. But as of Monday evening, the Taliban remained in control of the districts, including one separated from Kunduz city only by a wide, brown river.”
— The Pentagon disclosed that a June 15 airstrike in Mosul has killed Ali Awni al-Harzi, who officials believed was involved in the 2012 attacks in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. the Pentagon said Monday.
GET SMART FAST:
Obama is poised to get the 60 votes he needs in the Senate today to advance Trade Promotion Authority as a stand-alone measure, which will be a big win.
It turns out that the Chinese actually had access to the personal data of an estimated 18 million current, former and prospective federal employees, CNN reported overnight, based on a closed-door briefing that FBI director James Comey gave senators. That’s four times what the Office of Personnel Management has publicly acknowledged. Those who have already been alerted are already waiting on hold for hours to get assistance.
Jeb Bush is seizing on the hack and promising to make cybersecurity a top priority if elected president. The governor is also prodding Obama to get rid of OPM director Katherine Archuleta, who he notes served as the National Political Director for Obama’s 2012 reelection. “What message will it send to other managers throughout the government — and private sector — if there isn’t accountability?”, Bush asks in an op-ed for Medium.
The White House said it will try to pare back the size of the National Security Council staff, which is believed to now number about 400, roughly twice the size it was at the end of the George W. Bush administration. (Karen DeYoung)
Donors have given or promised at least $20 million to various pro-Walker fundraising groups, including an allied super PAC.
The Supreme Court added a decision day for this Friday, in addition to the one already planned for Thursday. That means the term could wrap up as early as next Monday.
CNN executives profusely apologized to the Supreme Court after an intern was caught recording footage with a GoPro camera that he had strapped to his chest inside the closed-to-cameras press room.
Jeb Bush’s super PAC formally launched with a new web site and introductory video.
POWER PLAYERS IN THE NEWS:
Larry Hogan, the recently-elected governor of Maryland, has been diagnosed with late stage 3 non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, which he described during a press conference as “a very advanced and very aggressive” form of cancer. He’s about to start an 18-week chemotherapy regimen that will begin with four days in the hospital.
Cami Anderson, installed by Chris Christie to run Newark’s public schools, is stepping down on July 8 “after four tumultuous years and widespread community protests over her plan known as One Newark.” (Lyndsey Layton)
Chris Christie’s approval rating is 30 percent, with disapproval at 55 percent, in a Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll of New Jersey released this morning.
President Obama will go to Charleston on Friday to deliver the eulogy at the funeral of Reverend Clementa Pinckney. The vice president will accompany him.
Pete Hegseth, a Fox & Friends co-host, accidentally struck a member of the West Point marching band with an axe on the air.
WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:
— “Meet Kristin Beck, a transgender former Navy SEAL running for Congress,” by Ben Terris: “Two years ago, Beck publicly came out as a woman, but by her account she still ‘looks like a dude in a dress.’ Even on a day when she was wearing jeans and a black jacket with white trim. And anyway, she’s running for Congress — not so much as a transgender candidate as a candidate who happens to be transgender. That’s why she didn’t bring up gender issues as she walked through Shaw’s upper-middle-class black neighborhood in Maryland, seeking votes in her long-shot primary bid against Steny H. Hoyer, the second-most-powerful Democrat in the House of Representatives. Beck, 48, almost certainly isn’t going to win. She doesn’t have much name recognition or money. She doesn’t even have the backing of the major gay and transgender advocacy groups. They have hesitations about her propensity to offend parts of the community and take issue with her attempt to oust Hoyer, a staunch ally for LGBT rights. But what Beck does have is an incredible life story, a slightly jumbled platform of about 70?issues, and a message that the district is ready for a change.”
— “From Piyush to Bobby: How does Jindal feel about his family’s past?” by Annie Gowen and Tyler Bridges in Khanpur, India: “Discouraged by a lack of engagement, some of Jindal’s early donors have faded away, according to Sanjay Puri, chairman of the U.S. India Political Action Committee. Jindal’s top-contributors list now includes such recognizable names as cosmetics mogul Georgette Mosbacher. Suresh C. Gupta, a Potomac doctor, gave a fundraiser for Jindal’s first gubernatorial bid. But he said Jindal has actively tried to disassociate himself with the Indian-American community in recent years. ‘So what if he’s Republican? So what if he’s Christian? I don’t care about those things,’ said Gupta, who is a Democrat. ‘But you can’t forget about your heritage. You can’t forget about your roots.’ When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to the United States to visit last September, a host of politicians attended his rally at Madison Square Garden. Jindal did not. When Jindal’s name was mentioned, he was booed by the crowd.”
SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:
— ZIGNAL VISUAL: For better or worse, Monday belonged to Ted Cruz. His strongly-worded comments opposing gun control post-Charleston vaulted the Texas senator to the top of the White House pack in terms of overall mentions across traditional, online and social media. By 2 p.m. Eastern Monday afternoon, 25 percent of all the 2016 conversation was about Cruz. He garnered more mentions than the next four GOP contenders (Bush, Paul, Perry and Rubio) combined, per our campaign analytics partner Zignal Labs.
Source: The Washington Post