Article by: Sumeet Chhibber, USINPAC Advisor

An increasingly unpopular and repressive dictator, but a crucial American ally in an important, Islamic but unstable Middle Eastern country is overthrown by a fundamentalist Islamist movement that is a sworn enemy of the United States. America’s unquestioned support to the dictator contributed to a growing sense of unease and ambivalence towards the US in that country’s citizenry. Americans are declared persona non grata and in a repeat of what happened earlier, the US embassy in the capital is stormed and burned by Islamist fighters. The new Islamist regime begins to provide training camps, logistics and other key operational support to execute terrorist strike missions against the US and its allies worldwide. Key US-supplied, advanced high-tech weaponry that once propped up the tottering dictator is now in the hands of the fundamentalist mullahs. In a few days, the entire US policy towards the Middle East is in serious jeopardy.

The fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979? Wrong. This is what may happen soon in Musharraf’s Pakistan if the US does not make some immediate policy changes. To complete the similarity with the hostage taking of American diplomats by Iran, in 1979, Pakistani students, enraged by a misleading radio report claiming that the U.S. had bombed Islam's holy site at Mecca, stormed the U.S. embassy at Islamabad, and burned it to the ground. President Musharraf’s government has become increasingly unpopular and repressive. On Friday, the Pakistan Supreme Court dealt Musharraf his severest constitutional blow of his eight years in power by reinstating the Supreme Court Chief Justice, whose manner of removal by Musharraf has galvanized the domestic Opposition in Pakistan to an unprecedented unity of purpose. However, the increasingly isolated General is still America’s favorite in the region, even though he has proved to be an unreliable partner in the war on terror. What makes this scenario even more dangerous than Iran in 1979, is that the US is banking its strategy for success in the Afghan campaign of the war on terror on Musharraf’s continued cooperation. Musharraf’s inevitable fall jeopardizes this entire strategy. Further, the fact that a resurgent Pakistani Taliban may fill the power vacuum upon his fall and thereby assume control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon stockpile makes this policy even more dangerous for the United States.

It makes no sense then to continue to reward Musharraf with US military hardware with no accountability. Recognizing this, Congress is considering passing into law Section 1442 of the ‘Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act of 2007’ (H.R. 1) that holds the Administration accountable by ensuring that military funds appropriated under the Arms Exports Control Act and Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 is tied to the defeat of the Taliban. Furthermore, this legislation outlines U.S. policy towards Pakistan, areas where both countries need to work in cooperation, and expresses the sense of Congress that the United States should implement a long term strategy towards Pakistan. Indeed, the 9-11 Commission recommended that, ‘Sustaining the current scale of aid to Pakistan, the United States should support Pakistan's government in its struggle against extremists with a comprehensive effort that extends from military aid to support for better education, so long as Pakistan's leaders remain willing to make difficult choices of their own.’

‘Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act of 2007’ is essential for the defeat of terrorism here in the United States and abroad. Section 1442 of the Act will go a long way to ensure that funds from the United States to Pakistan are used to defeat terrorists and promote democratic and social reforms. As the United States continues to pour money into a country with very little stability, we need to ensure that there is some oversight and accountability.

Section 1442 is an essential component of United States security interests and should remain in tact during negotiations between the House and Senate in the conference committee, especially during these times of political and security uncertainty in Pakistan.

Continuing to provide blind support, especially to the Pakistan military and to a tottering Musharraf runs the risk of destabilizing Pakistan. This in turn risks another major terrorist attack on US soil since the remaining sanctuary of the Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership is now in Pakistan. The United States must not repeat the tragic misjudgment of banking its regional policy on a shaky dictator only to see the house of cards collapse.